Hurricane Vance, churning off Mexico’s Pacific coast, rapidly strengthened into a Category 2 storm on Friday, with forecasters warning it could briefly become a major hurricane — the seventh major hurricane in a row in what has become a record-shattering Pacific hurricane season.
From tropical storm to Category 2 in a day
Vance formed Wednesday, October 21, about 500 miles south of the Mexican coast, and wasted no time getting stronger. The storm became a hurricane early Friday with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, then continued strengthening through the day, reaching 105 mph by Friday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
At its peak reported Friday, Vance was centered about 425 miles (685 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco and nearly 600 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, drifting north-northwest at only about 5 mph. The slow crawl gave the storm more time over very warm water: over 24 hours, its winds climbed from 60 mph to 90 mph while its central pressure fell from 997 to 979 millibars, NHC data showed.
Forecasters say the intensification may not be over. The NHC projected Vance could briefly reach Category 3 strength — with winds near 115 mph (185 km/h) — as early as Saturday, though the agency cautioned that confidence in that forecast was low, since cooler water and increasing wind shear could cap further strengthening.
What Mexico’s coast can expect
Vance is expected to continue its north-northwest track through the weekend, approaching the Puerto Vallarta area by Monday, with the hurricane’s outer bands already funneling gale-force winds and rough seas into Mexico’s Gulf of Tehuantepec.
The most immediate hazard is the sea, not the wind: swells generated by Vance are expected to begin pounding portions of Mexico’s southern and southwestern coast this weekend and continue into next week. The NHC warned those swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
As of Friday’s advisories, no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings were in effect. Forecasters say Vance is likely to weaken before it reaches the vicinity of the coast somewhere near Manzanillo next week, but they urged everyone in the region to stay well-informed as the forecast evolves.
A record-breaking Pacific season
Vance is the latest product of one of the most intense Pacific hurricane seasons on record. If it reaches Category 3, it would be the seventh major hurricane in a row this year — following Nolo, Odalys, Polo, Rachel, Simon and Trudy, according to the Associated Press.
The milestones keep stacking up: Vance is the 13th hurricane of the season in the Pacific basin, and the first storm in the eastern Pacific to receive a V-name since 2018, since the World Meteorological Organization’s hurricane committee skips the uncommon Q and U letters.
The driving force is a developing strong El Niño, which has brought record-warm ocean temperatures that have supercharged storm formation and duration across the Pacific. The United Nations and other agencies warned this week that a “behemoth” El Niño — potentially unprecedented in the modern record — is likely, with a formal “Super El Niño” declaration expected later this year.
The western Pacific has been churning out monsters too: Super Typhoon Champi earlier this week tied Super Typhoon Sinlaku as the strongest storm on Earth in 2026, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, before weakening dramatically as it tracked toward Taiwan. In a quirk of planetary physics, the same El Niño pattern has also produced the second quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1950.
Why forecasters are watching closely
Vance remains a difficult storm to predict. A strong Tehuantepecer wind event along southern Mexico — powerful offshore winds funnelling through the Chivela Pass — could interact with the storm’s environment and help it keep organizing, forecasters noted. On the other hand, the NHC flagged cooler waters ahead and rising wind shear as reasons the storm could fail to reach major-hurricane status at all.
For residents and travelers along Mexico’s Pacific coast, the message from forecasters is consistent: this is the kind of storm that can change fast, in a season that has already rewritten the record books.
Sources: Associated Press, National Hurricane Center advisories, Fox Weather, USA Today, Geo.tv. Facts verified across multiple outlets on October 23–24, 2026.